Amazon is to launch a New Platform for authors.

I came across this in Digital Reader. I'm not sure if I will try this route but I will watch it with interest given that traditional publishers forgot that their customer wasn't the bookseller but the reader. Their source of income wasn't provided by themselves but by the author they represent.

O

Amazon to Launch New Crowd Source Platform, Now Recruiting KDP Authors

22 September, 2014Amazon, Publishing newsAmazon, authors, books, crowd, kdp,publishing, recruiting, sourceNate Hoffelder

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Here’s a new publishing program from Amazon which is so new that it doesn’t yet have a launch day, URL, or even a name.

Late last week Amazon started sending out emails to KDP authors, informing them of a new program which Amazon plans to launch soon. According to the email, which was forwarded to me by author Angela Kulig and by Amazon’s pr dept, when the new program launches authors will be welcomed to submit their unpublished book to what I would describe as a crowd sourcing program. 

Details are still scarce, but the email did say that it will work like this:

1. Authors will be asked to submit their complete, never-before-published book and cover.
2. After a few days, we will post the first pages of each book on a new website for readers to preview and nominate their favorites.
3. Books with the most nominations will be reviewed by our team for potential publication.

I’ve confirmed the new program with Amazon pr spokesperson Susan Stockman, who told me that this program will be neither KDP nor Amazon Publishing, but something new. Unfortunately the program is so new that she was unable to provide much additional information.

Edit: If you would like to sign up to be notified when this program launches, Amazon has started a mailing list.

She was, however, able to confirm the contract terms mentioned in the email. Note what it says about the print and digital rights:

• Guaranteed advance & competitive royalties: You will receive a guaranteed $1,500 advance and 50% royalties on net eBook revenue.
• Focused formats: We acquire worldwide publication rights for eBook and audio formats in all languages. You retain all other rights, including print.
• 5-year renewable terms, $5,000 in royalties: If your book doesn’t earn $5,000 in royalties during your initial 5-year contract term, and any 5-year renewal term after that, you can choose to stop publishing with us.
• Easy reversions: After two years, your rights in any format or language that remains unpublished, or all rights for any book that earns less than $500 in total royalties in the preceding 12-month period, can be reverted upon request – no questions asked.
• Early downloads & reviews: One week prior to release date, everyone who nominated your book will receive a free, early copy to help build momentum and customer reviews.
• Featured Amazon marketing: Your book will be enrolled into the Kindle Owners’ Lending Library, Kindle Unlimited as well as be eligible for targeted email campaigns and promotions.

Amazon isn’t the first publisher to try crowd-sourcing (in fact, a couple have launched similar programs in the past couple years) but if and when this program launches they will certainly be the most visible.

What do you think of the program?

I’ll confess; as a non-author I am reserving my opinion in order to let the experts way in.

For example, glancing through the KDP discussion forum where I first found this story, I can see that a couple authors have already expressed interest in this program:

Most of us, however, are not selling as well as we would like. For example, in a good month I may move fifty books, more during promotions. My titles have good editorial and customer reviews (and NOT by friends and relatives, either), and I’d like to think they are worth reading. I know one can’t put much stock in opinions of people one knows, but when people I haven’t seen in years have gotten in touch to tell me how much they enjoyed one of the books, I have to think that means something. All of that said, the books haven’t exactly caught fire. I could just be deceiving myself, but I’ve always felt being able to market to just the right audience could cause them to catch fire. For me, this kind of offer sounds tempting because of Amazon’s ability to market effectively on their own site. Anyway, the relative ease with which the rights revert to me if I don’t get the results I expect would reduce any risk involved.

And:

I’d be all over it with a stand-alone just to generate more name exposure, which could lead to sales of my other books.

What do you think?

Win some lose some but which way is best? Kindle Unlimited??

Here's another article I had to share. Each author needs to decide which way is best for them. To join KU or not to join. It's never easy. Because we don't have a time machine. There will be some losers and some winners. What we do know from amazon statistics is that romance, erotica and thrillers are the best sellers. Then it makes sense that these writers, if they jump the right way (not sure which way that is) will be winners as the readers who buy the most books buy within these genres.


"To all my fellow writers and self-publishers out there…


Some of you may be aware that Amazon launched its “All you can read for one low monthly fee” program in July of this year (2014). Essentially, you can now download and read as many ebooks as you like from Amazon’s Kindle platform for only $9.99 a month.


While this is great for readers, many Kindle-based authors were on the fence about this new program. After all, for those of us who rely on sales of our books to do pesky things like pay the rent, what would a program like this do to our bottom line?


Well, after about a month and a half of KU (that’s shorthand for Kindle Unlimited, to those of you not hip to my jive), I can certainly see some patterns emerging when it comes to my own work. But before I get into this any further, here are the basics of the KU program:
Only books enrolled in the KDP Select program are offered to KU users. All books outside of KDP Select must still be purchased, even if you subscribe to KU.
Authors get paid from the Kindle Online Lending Library (KOLL) fund. Essentially, all books downloaded by KU customers are treated like “rentals.”
Authors only get paid from KU downloads if the end user reads 10% of the book. (Apparently, Kindle has a way of tracking this.)


Since its inception, many authors have noticed there has been a definite change in their KDP stats. Personally, I’ve noticed sales have gone down slightly, while rentals have gone WAY up. Like, way, WAY up. As in, I barely got any rentals before KU, and ever since KU launched, I’m getting a butt-ton (it’s a word) of rentals on a daily basis.


So here are my recommendations for taking advantage of Kindle Unlimited, from what I know so far…
Use extended enrollment in KDP Select/Kindle Unlimited for all Erotica, Romance, Mystery/Thriller, Short Stories, & Children’s Books.
Keep books short – 10-20 pages (or roughly 4k-8k words).
Break books up into serialized content if they are in KU-heavy niches.
Use KDP Select/Kindle Unlimited for book series, but consider keeping one-offs or stand-alone novels outside of the Select program if you are in KU friendly genres.
Use KDP Select/Kindle Unlimited for the first book in a series, with the rest of the series outside the Select program and sold around $2.99-$4.99, using $0.99 sales to entice readers to buy. "

To read more: http://matthewkadish.com/author-marketing-101-verdict-kindle-unlimited/

New developments in the world of publishing - the "bookeen"

Hi

I just came across this on The Guardian blog and had to share:

The big short – why Amazon's Kindle Singles are the future

All hail the 'bookeen', a new format that's perfect for short stories, novellas and essays

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Stephen King holds aloft a special pink Kindle given to him by Amazon's CEO, Jeff Bezos. Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images

New formats in literature are rare, and disruptive. They usually accompany a change in technology. Amazon was the first big player to realise that digitisation would allow for a new literary format. In January 2011, it quietly launched a substore on its US website to sell something it called a Kindle Single: Compelling Ideas Expressed At Their Natural Length, as a press release headline blandly put it.

"Typically between 5,000 and 30,000 words, Kindle Singles are editorially curated and showcase writing from both new and established voices – from bestselling novelists and journalists to previously unpublished writers."

To read more: 

http://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2013/sep/05/amazon-kindle-singles-short

A plagiarist - nightmare - don't let it be you

I read a disturbing article by John Doppler. We writers must be extra careful sending copies of our manuscript out for reviews to people we only know via an internet name. Convicted plagiarist Tiffanie Ruston not only stole Rachel Ann Nunes' christian story, she inserted sex scenes and promoted it as her own work. Then she used sock puppets to leave one star reviews for Rachel. To read more, click on the link below:

http://johndopp.com/plagiarism-sam-taylor-mullens-busted/

This person is a plagiarist. Tiffanie Rushton, a Utah schoolteacher.

Mistakes to avoid when self-publishing

 
There are a few things that separate successful self-published authors and the could-have-beens. If you want your book to succeed, avoid these common mistakes.

1. Formatting

There are specific requirements for properly formatting your book. Authors who try to do the formatting themselves may be disappointed with how their book turns out. To ensure your book is formatted properly, either enlist the help of your self-publishing company or look online to find tips if you are proficient in Word formatting. Even if you're an average Word user it's not that hard anymore. After you upload your book, use the preview option to check for errors before you launch. Even if you upload your book and find errors later, you can download the HTML version and upload it again when you corrected it. If your book has a number of pictures then you'll have to zip the file before you upload. Click on the 'paragraph character' which looks like an upside down music note. Found in the 'quick toolbar' at the top. Then use the 'control + F' option in Word to find and replace. Click on 'more' then 'special' tabs to find all the extra 'paragraph characters' that shouldn't be there and so on.
Tip:
A few links to help you:

http://www.ebook-editor.com/7-tips-to-perform-your-own-kindle-formatting-service/

http://needanarticle.com/index2/writing-kindle-ebooks-part-6-formatting-kindle-book/

http://beyondpaperediting.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/at-glance-ebook-formatting-for-kindle.html

2. Front Cover

You may be tempted to save money by using a template cover. Your cover is your first selling point. Despite the cliché 'Don’t judge a book by it’s cover,' most readers do! You want a unique, professionally designed cover that captures the essence of your book and encourages readers to buy it. You can find perfectly good professional cover designers online that don't charge the earth.
Tip: Trawl through Kindle ebooks to find the covers in the genre that you are writing and that you like. This way when you approach a designer they will have a better idea of what you want. If you can find a photo you would like to use (royalty free) then do so. This saves them time and you money.
Try: http://www.fiverr.com

3. Editing

Another area authors often try to save money is editing. They think that self-editing is the best option, but even the best writers can’t rely on self-editing. It’s just not possible to catch all of the mistakes and issues when you are so attached to the project. Always have a professional editor review your manuscript before publishing to ensure your book is the best it can be. Too many mistakes can be costly to your reputation as a professional author. I would suggest you go to http://www.elance.com and find an editor there to suit your budget. It takes time for the editor to review your book so ensure you have factored this into your schedule.
Tip: don't pick the one with the best resume as that can be misleading because it may not fit your style. Instead ask them to send you an unedited and edited sample of their work (same pages). Some may offer to look at a 2 or 3 pages of your manuscript.

4. Back Cover

Paperback: The back cover is just as important as the front cover! Do not rush through this step. The back cover helps hook the reader and plays a role in online search results. A professional copywriter and editor can help make your back cover and blurb great.
Tip: http://www.fiverr.com

5. Time

Do not rush! It is far better to get your book out there when you've spent the time revising your manuscript. I've seen books that I know were rushed and it turns readers away from considering your next book. Those one star reviews hurt you and kill sales. That said, you do need to have a realistic but flexible timeline.

If you think that one book is enough then think again. The successful authors know it is important to get it as good as they can before they launch. These authors know that launching their first book is only part of the journey. As soon as they have one out there, they get busy writing the next one and so on.

Enjoy the journey because if you don't then there's no point writing. It's not an easy road to travel but it can be a rewarding one.

Dean Koontz on writing that bestselling novel

Here's another article I felt was worth posting here:

Tip 4

Minimalist writing, in the tradition of Hemingway, has been taught for so many decades that much of what is published these days lacks character and color. Metaphor, simile, all kinds of figures of speech have evaporated from much modern fiction, and many new writers have no interest in using the language in vivid and inventive ways. Hemingway was a stylistic genius, and his approach worked for him, in part because there were layers of meaning under the apparently simple words. Geniuses are rare; therefore, most minimalist writers end up with brisk and simple language that is barely a first layer and that has nothing under it. Dare to love the language, if minimum prose feels flat to you. Some readers won't get it; many will not only get it but delight  in it.

Read more at http://www.beliefnet.com/Entertainment/Galleries/koontz-7-bestseller-tips.aspx?p=5#urpALTGS9oc2IFSf.99

Dean Koontz - more tips on writing that novel

More on the battle between Amazon and Hachette and self-published writers

Here's another article I came across. I like the man's reasoning. We self-published authors do get a bad wrap at times. There are books I've bought at the local bookstore that had me scratching my head as to how this author got published by one of the big five as he/she wrote a very thin story which was badly written and the only good thing about it was the blurb on the back and the cover.

Of course, there are many paper books that are written by great writers and I admire them.

Here's the link from the huffington post...

Please Stop Gene Doucette

What's at stake in the battle between Amazon and Hachette

The battle between Amazon and Hachette gets interesting.
Please click on the link below.

Amazon Just Revealed Exactly What's At Stake In Its Battle With Hachette --

How important is a book title?

I imagine it's very important.

I just came across Lulu's title scorer.

Lulu titlescorer

Enjoy.

It was interesting that some of the best sellers didn't score so well. The Secret didn't score very well, but we all know it's a runaway seller.

What makes people buy a self-published book.

Reblogged by me because this is a mine field of information that the self-published author can't ignore.

The findings surprised me (which surprised me, because I was surveying myself). I found that I knew what made me buy a self-published book when it was in front of me, but not what put that book in front of me, unless I was browsing by genre (e.g. today I feel like reading a romance set in Ulaanbaatar: therefore I will now search specifically for such a story).

It was still hard to know what put those books in front of my eyes in order to buy them; to quote one of the commenters on that post – this is the thorny issue of “discoverability”. How will we find these books in the first place?

So I did the unthinkable, and asked some other people. I surveyed readers and writers alike, in online groups for different fiction genres of crime, fantasy and general fiction,  and more than a few other people who just like to talk to other people about reading and writing. I asked them what factors influenced them most when buying books – particularly self-published books and any other books which aren’t pushed by the major houses.

Their answers were duly collected and poured into a spreadsheet, one rainy morning when I was in my pyjamas, and can be split into 2 camps. Some answers relate to discoverability; others to what makes people buy a book once it’s already in front of them.

In this sample, there are 72 answers. Some people cited more than one factor they considered before purchasing, so regardless of the order in which they placed these factors, I gave them all equal weight.

Having said that, it’s safe to say that in the vast majority of cases, if the cover was amateurish, or unappealing, the book would never have made it to the 2nd stage of vetting, be that the blurb or the sample.

Here are some lovely graphs with my findings. In case you didn’t know, I LOVE graphs. (Although take it from me, they’re hard to cuddle when you’re trying to fall asleep.)

First, we have the overall results:

Overall, by far the most important factors were cover, blurb and the sample (for some, this was the first few paragraphs, through Amazon’s “Look Inside” feature; for others, the full chapters from the e-Reader sample download).

Your cover might be gorgeous. Your blurb might push all the right buttons for the hungry reader. But if there’s a mistake in your first 2 paragraphs, or the reader doesn’t like your style, then it’s good night, I’m afraid.

Several of those surveyed said they had bought self-published books because they had seen other examples of the author online – either from their blog, commenting on other blogs, or articles in magazines or journals. They liked what they saw and then went to see what else was on offer. This is precisely what we mean when we talk about online platforms.

In the case of Twitter (which is the platform most likely to drive me mad when authors simply tweet endlessly “BUY MY BOOK!! SPECIAL ### OFFER!! BUY IT NOW ###  TODAY TODAY!!!!!! (hashtag exclamation point))) – a few people said that they liked to get a sense of the author on Twitter, and then maybe look up their book. So it wasn’t publicising the book on Twitter which sold books: it was the author being engaging on Twitter on a more personal level.

Facebook was more likely to remind those surveyed to buy the book of an author they already liked, rather than introduce them to a book for the first time.

Finally, it was cover, blurb and sample all the way. Reviews mattered, but in different ways. An interesting point, made by some of those surveyed, was that they looked at the worst reviews first – 1* or 2* reviews only – because they found it easier to ascertain whether they were authentic, and because they felt they got a better sense of the book from people who didn’t like it, rather than the people who said they did. (Or gave it 5 stars because they are the author’s Mammy. See here.)

Price was also an unusual issue. There were 2 distinct views: those who made impulse buys (without reading reviews or a sample) under a certain price, and those who would never bought books under a certain price point, because they had no faith that they’d be any good.

There were also good indicators on what turned readers off  self-published books. Another post will follow on that. I bet you can’t wait.

Time for you to weigh in: if you haven’t already had your say, is there something glaringly missing from the above graphs which makes your buying decision for you?

Jan Hurst-Nicholson | August 3, 2014 at 11:22 am

I’m surprised the title doesn’t play a bigger part in selecting a book, especially after reading this.

n 1928 the publisher E Haldeman-Julius was considered to be a literary Henry Ford who had perfected the art of merchandising the world’s classics. In the previous 10 years he had sold 100 million copies of his cheap reprints.

He believed that in order to sell a classic piece of literature, it had to have the right title. He believed that the title must have some connection with the three subjects which most appealed to the ‘reading masses’.

1. Sex

2. Self-improvement

3. Attacks upon Respectability and Religion.

His motto — By their titles ye shall sell them.

In 1926 8 000 copies of Victor Hugo’s play “Le Roi s’Amuse’ were sold. He re-named it ‘The Lustful King Enjoys Himself” and 38 000 copies were sold.

Theophile Gautier’s “The Golden Fleece” enjoyed huge sales when it was re-titled “The Search for a Blonde Mistress.”

Scopeenhauer’s “Art of Controversy” was a dead duck until Mr Haldeman-Julius published it under “How to Argue Logically.” And De Quincy’s “Essay on Conversation’ sold like hot cakes when re-titled “How to Improve Your conversation.”

Always, for obvious reasons, it has been necessary to keep the reader in mind. Any change in title must be validated by the actual contents of the book. The change must serve, not deception, but enlightenment; the change must advance some particular information as to exactly the book’s contents. It would never do to re-title Chaucer’s Canterbury Tales, for example, unless the title were also to indicate that the tales were still in archaic verse.

He never altered the text in any way — just the titles. :)

http://www.masterkeymarketingwarriors.com/products/copywriting/haldeman-julius/FirstHundredMillion.pdf

Reply

http://tarasparlingwrites.wordpress.com/2014/07/31/what-makes-people-buy-self-published-books/

Are we going to see another Dot Com Crash?

I've just read Rebecca's latest email and it worried me. Is there going to be another Dot Com crash? What's going to survive? How will we market our books in the future? I've copied and pasted the article from her email below.

'The Dot Com Crash I predicted in What's Working Now magazine is on its way. Here are some things you need to know ... Anyone who told you recessions don't happen online was lying to you. The online economy works just the same as any othereconomy. It has cycles. None of your online gurus have warned you about this, because they don't KNOW this. Most of the 'veterans' of online marketing have only been marketing online since the mid 2000s ... WAY after the last Dot Com Crash. The only people you know who can help you navigate this WHEN it happens are people who ran successful businesses online before 2000, and who were still running successful online businesses in 2001. Everyone else either doesn't have the experience to guide you, or they failed.  I was running a successful internet marketing business in 1999, and was still running successful online businesses after the crash. In fact, I helped start another online business after the crash that became the top business in its niche.  Below is a graphic of what happened yesterday with tech stocks. So what has this got to do with you? Tech stocks? You know.... Facebook, Amazon, Google ... If you market anything online this is relevant. If you're an author, this is relevant. If you're building a business based on getting Facebook leads, this is freaking CRUCIAL to understand. Facebook could go. Vanish. Cease to be. It happened to companies that were - relative to the numbers online - more significant than Facebook in the last crash.  When? Any time. Last time it took about 10 days to go from this to a slippery slope, and a couple of moths to crash completely. This time it'll probably take longer because the industry has so much more social proof behind it... but it'll crash. The feeling before the last crash was exactly as the feeling has been online over the last year.  THIS is why I've been SCREAMING for ethics and stable business principles. THIS is why I only work with companies that I know have the specific backgrounds that make them far more likely to be resilient in a crash than others. THIS is why I coach my clients the way I do. I don't care if they have shiny object syndrome. I don't care if they stamp their feet and demand the latest toy. I teach them how to run RESILIENT businesses, and how to build their BRANDS in such a way that they will stand tall when everything else falls.  If Facebook went away tomorrow, do you think people would still open my emails? Yes. Do you think they'd still answer the phone? Yes. Do you think I'd still get paid? Yes. So would many people online - temporarily - if they'd taken the time to build a brand. But after that, things would change. The people who actually KNOW what they're doing in the new normal will thrive. I've done this once. I know exactly how much things change on the flip side of what we're experiencing today. My clients and team members are safe. We'll be standing tall when the gurus who showed up after the crash fail to know what to do, and fall. Which group will you be in when the time comes? Rebecca.' Join-Rebecca.com  Join me on twitter: olgaolha or facebook: MysteryAndThrillerWriters Group The Deadly Caress on kindle

Mark Coker - Smashwords predictions for 2014

Hi

I've just been reading the predictions by Mark Coker from Smashwords. I've copied and pasted it here.
Take heed. He does mention that he didn't get all of his 2013 predictions right but he's still more knowledgeable than the us little authors out there.

Many months ago I decided that to compete with the professional authors I had to get my book edited and proof read as when I tried to read some of the indie books on kindle, I found most were too bogged down with overwriting, etc and stopped. There were some indie books that were terrific reads but these were in the minority.

I listed my project for substantive editing and proofreading on Elance and got more than 85 quotes for my job. I chose an American editor as my story is set part in California and Sydney and I was aiming for the American market. Also, I thought that since I lived in Sydney, I could handle the dialogue from characters who were from Australia.

And I found that I could get a professional looking book cover done on fiverr.com instead of trying to created something myself that would take me hours if not days and would brand my story as raw (still needing polishing and not worth reading).

MONDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2013

2014 Book Publishing Industry Predictions - Price Drops to Impact Competitive Dynamics

It’s that time of year again when I polish my crystal ball and stick my neck out with predictions for the year ahead.

Last year I went out on a limb with 21 predictions.  Looking back on them now, several were spot on, several were premature but will still play out, and some were dead wrong.  That’s the fun of the prediction game.  Even incorrect predictions, analyzed in retrospect, help shape our understanding of the present and future.

Predictions stir our imagination of what’s possible.  By imagining what’s possible, indie authors can prepare for the future, or take steps to realize the future they desire.

This year, I bring fourteen predictions for 2014.

1. Big publishers lower prices – Traditional publishers have always fought tooth and nail to hold the line on ebook prices.  By maintaining high prices, they left the sub-$5.99 market for ebooks wide open for indie authors to exploit.  For several years, indies have enjoyed this playground all to themselves.  The results of our 2013 Smashwords survey illustrated the competitive advantage indies received by pricing low.  Our 2013 survey found that books priced $2.99 and $3.99, on average, received about four times as many unit sales as books priced over $7.99.  This pricing advantage helped many indies out-sell and out-compete the traditional publishers.  It helped indies build fan bases at a rapid clip.  For indies who could write and publish low-priced books that were as good or better than what New York was publishing, placement in the bestseller lists became more achievable than ever before.  For much of 2013, it wasn’t uncommon to see indies holding up to half of the top 10 bestseller slots at major retailers on some days.  Big publishers have taken note.  In 2013 big publishers began competing more aggressively on price with temporary price promotions.  Until recently, it was rare to see a traditionally published book priced under $4.00.  In 2014 their temporary price promotions will give way to a new normal.  Discounting is a slippery slope.  Once customers are conditioned to expect big-name authors for $3.99 or less, the entire industry will be forced to go there.  The huge pricing advantage once enjoyed by indies will diminish in 2014.
2. When everyone is pricing sub $4.00, price promotions will become less effective – If readers have an unlimited supply of high-quality books from their favorite authors at under $4.00, it means factors other than price will gain importance.
3. Ebook growth slows – Here comes the hangover.  After a decade of exponential growth in ebooks with indies partying like it was 1999, growth is slowing.  We all knew this day was coming.  Year over year growth of 100% to 300% a year could not continue forever.  The hazard of fast-growing market is that it can mask flaws in business models.  It can cause players to misinterpret their success, and the assumptions upon which they credit their success.  It can cause successful players to draw false correlations between cause and effect.  Who are these players?  I’m talking about authors, publishers, retailers, distributors and service providers – all of us.  It’s easy to succeed when everything’s growing.  It’s when things slow-down that your mettle is tested.  The market is slowing.  A normal cyclical shakeout is coming.  Rather than fear the shakeout, embrace it.  Let it spur you on to become a better, more competitive player in 2014.  Players who survive shakeouts usually come out stronger the other end.
4. Competition increases dramatically – With hundreds of thousands of new books published annually, and with retailer catalogs swelling to carry millions of titles, it may come across as trite for me to predict that completion will increase in 2014 for indies.  Yet in 2014, the competition faced by indies will increase by an order of magnitude, and will make some indies wish it was 2013 again.  The ebook publishing playing field, which until recently was significantly tilted in the indies’ favor, has now leveled a bit.  Yet indies still enjoy a number of competitive advantages, including faster time to market, greater creative freedom, closer relationships with readers and thus a better understanding of reader desires, higher royalties rates and ultra-low pricing flexibility including FREE.
5. Ebook sales, measured in dollar volume, will decrease in 2014 – Yikes.  I said it.  The nascent ebook market is likely to experience its first annual downturn in sales as measured in dollar volume.  This will be driven by price declines among major publishers and by the slowing transition from print to screens.  Although readers will continue migrating from print to screens, the early adopters have adopted and the laggards will shift more slowly.  Another driver of the drop is that the overall book market growth has been moribund for several years.  As ebooks as a percentage of the overall book market increase, it means the growth of ebooks will become constrained by the growth and/or contraction of the overall book industry.  Global sales in developing countries remain one potential bright spot that could mitigate any sales contraction.
6. Ebook unit market share will increase – Ebook consumption, measured in unit sales and downloads, and measured in words read digitally, will increase in 2014.  The industry-wide sales slowdown, caused by the drop in average prices, will mask the fact that more books will be read than ever before.  This is great news for book culture, and good news for indies who despite the loss of their once-powerful price advantage, will still be positioned to profit more from low prices, or to compete at ultra-low (sub $3.00) price points than traditionally published authors.
7. A larger wave of big-name authors will defect to indieville – Multiple market forces will conspire to cause a large number of traditionally published authors to turn their backs on big publishers.  Publishers will try to hold the line on their 25% net ebook royalty structures, which means big authors will see their royalties suffer as prices drop and as the unit sales advantage of low prices decreases, and as the disadvantage of high prices increases.  At the same time, readers will continue to transition from print to ebooks, making the print distribution to physical bookstores less important, and thus weakening the grip big publishers once had on bigger-name authors.  Big authors, eager to maximize their net, will feel greater impetus to emigrate to indieville.
8. It’s all about the writing – It’s back to basics time.  In a world where readers face an unlimited quantity of high-quality low-cost works, the writers who achieve the most success will be those who take their readers to the most emotionally satisfying extremes.  Books are pleasure-delivery devices.  It doesn’t matter if you’re publishing a cookbook, romance novel, gardening how-to, memoir or political treatise.  Your job as the indie author is to write that super-fabulous book.  That involves great writing and professional-quality editing.  It also means avoiding all the mistakes that create unnecessary friction that prevent readers from discovering, desiring and enjoying the book.  To understand these points of friction, and how to avoid them, check out my discussion of Viral Catalysts in The Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success, or in my Youtube video on best practices.
9. All authors become indie authors - Back in the dark ages of publishing, you were either traditionally published or weren't published.  Writers who couldn't get a publishing deal were seen as failures, because without the access to the publisher's printing press, distribution and professional know-how, it was virtually impossible to reach readers.  Today, failure is not an option.  The next generation of writers can begin writing their book with the full confidence that one way or another, it will get published.  Traditionally published authors now realize they have desirable publishing alternatives they never had before.  Once a writer - any writer - comes to the realization that the power in the publishing industry has transfered from publishers to writers, it opens up a new world of possibilities.  Publishing no longer becomes an either/or question.  The best writers will have the option to publish independently AND traditionally, or do one or the other.  It's their choice.  Both options are worthy of consideration by all writers, and can be mutually complementary.  Even if you're a traditionally published author today, you're an indie author because you decide what happens with your next project.
10. Subscription ebook services will change the game – If the ebook subscription services – the most notable of which are Scribd and Oyster – can make their business models work, then they’ll drive a game changing shift in how readers value and consume books.  I examined the potential implications of this in my two-part blog post on this model (read part one | read part two) .  For ebook subscription service users, reading will become an abundant resource that feels free.  It’ll become a utility service in the same way that water and electricity are utilities.  When we flip the switch to turn on a light, or when we turn the knob on the faucet to brush our teeth, we’re not thinking about how our next 60 seconds of that service will cost us one or two cents.  We pay our monthly service fee, and for the most part we use the utility as much as we want.  With ebook subscription services, the reader will pay $9 or $10 a month and enjoy virtually limitless reading.  Readers will be relieved of the cognitive load of having to decide if a given book is worth the purchase price.  Instead, they’ll surf and sample books with minimal friction, as if every book is free.  The reader’s attention, and the book’s ability to hold the reader’s attention, will become the new factor in determining a writer’s success.  Even if these subscription services fail, they'll change the future of publishing by giving readers a taste of friction-free reading-as-a-service.  It's a taste readers are unlikely to forget.
11. Traditional publishers will reevaluate their approach to self-publishing – The vanity approach to self-publishing, as witnessed by Pearson/Penguin’s acquisition of Author Solutions (operates AuthorHouse, iUniverse, BookTango, Trafford, Xlibris, Palibrio, others…), has shown itself to be a boondoggle that harmed the brands of all traditional publishers.  I predicted this last year.  The Author Solutions business model is wholly dependent upon making money by selling overpriced services to unwitting authors.  Their business model is expensive at best, and unethical at worst.  It’s about selling $15,000 publishing packages to authors who will never earn the money back.  The model represents the antithesis of what the best and proudest publishers have always represented.  Great publishers invest in their authors.  The money flows from reader to retailer to publisher to author, not from author to publisher.  At the same time Author Solutions has tarnished the reputation of all traditional publishers - even those not engaged in such practices - the indie author revolution has continued in full swing.  Indies are stealing market share.  Indies have learned to publish like professionals.  Many indies no longer shop their books to agents and publishers, and instead choose to publish their books directly to readers using self-serve publishing and distribution platforms such as Smashwords, or KDP, Nook Press, and others.  Publishers are losing access to the critical deal flow that is their lifeblood.  I talked about this in my discussion of black swans in last year’s predictions.  If they lack an effective service offering for indie authors, the big publishers risk finding themselves on the wrong side of history as authors move on without them.  The stigma once associated with self-publishing is melting away as the stigma of traditional publishing grows.  How can publishers stem the bloodletting and recapture relationships with authors?  The answer will come by publishers reevaluating their attitude toward authors.  They must recognize that publishing is a service, and that they serve at the pleasure of authors.  Now that authors have choices, the publishing game can no longer be about, “What can the author do for the publisher?”  Authors no longer need to bow subservient to publishers, so business models based on this old practice and attitude will be rejected.  The new publisher mantra must be, “What can the publisher do for the author that the author cannot or will not do on their own?” 
    
    Publishers need to broaden their author services menu by creating an inclusive business model that allows them to take a risk on every author, to be able to say “Yes” to every author when the prior attitude was to say “No.”  Authors want a spectrum of options, from self-serve to full-serve, and they shouldn't have to shell out cash to their publisher for any option.   Publishers must abandon the culture of “No,” because authors no longer have the patience or tolerance to hear “No.”  Authors have choices, and they’ve gained a taste for the joys of self-publishing.  What’s this new model, where the publisher can say yes to every author, yet still earn a profit?  The answer: they need to build or acquire their own self-serve publishing platform. A self-serve platform would allow them to take a risk on every author, and to form a relationship with every author.  By operating a free publishing platform, the publishers would have the ability to serve the diverse needs of all authors.  DIY authors would select the self-serve option.  Authors with proven commercial potential who don't want to hassle with the responsibilities of being one's own publisher might opt for a path somewhere along the spectrum between DIY and full-serve (what has been heretofore been known as traditional publishing), assuming both the author and publisher desire that.  The compensation models and level of publisher investment could vary based on the level of publisher service.  Such a full-spectrum approach to publishing, where authors pay nothing, is 100% aligned with the author’s interests, and 100% aligned with the best practices of the best publishers.  A good self-serve platform doesn't employ sales people.  It doesn't take money from authors.  And that’s how it should be.  So the question is, can publishers introduce their own free self-serve platforms to broaden their services offerings?  Time is running out.
12. Platform is king – Platform is your ability to reach readers.  Authors who can build, maintain and leverage their platforms will have a significant competitive advantage over those who cannot.  Think of your platform as a multi-layered infrastructure that allows you to reach both new and existing fans.  Elements of this infrastructure include your followings on Twitter, Facebook and the RSS feed of your blog.  It includes the breadth of your distribution (more retailers is better than fewer), your uninterrupted presence at each retailer for every book, and the reviews at those retailers.  It includes the number of authors who have “favorited” you at Smashwords, or who have added your books to their booklists at Goodreads.  It includes subscribers to your private mailing list.  It includes your celebrity, and your ability to leverage social media or traditional media or the love of your fans to get your message out.  There are two primary factors that drive sales of any product or brand.  The first is awareness.  If the consumer is not aware of your product or brand, then they cannot purchase it.  You need to put your product in front of a consumer and gain their attention before they can consider it.  The second is desire.  Once a consumer is aware of your product or brand, they must desire it.  As I talk about in my Secrets book, the author is the brand.  Your job as the author is to build awareness of your brand, and to build, earn and deserve positive desire for your brand.  Awareness plus desire create demand for your product.  This is why platform will become more important than ever in 2014.  Your platform helps you get the message out to existing fans who already know and desire your brand, and helps you reach new fans who will attach their wagons to your horse.  The larger your platform is, the easier it is to grow your platform further, because platforms grow organically.
13. Multi-author collaborations will become more common – In 2013, I observed a marked increase in the number of multi-author collaborations.  I’ve been encouraging multi-author collaborations for a few years in the Smashwords Book Marketing Guide, but 2013 was the year the practice really took hold.  Authors are collaborating with fellow authors in their same genre or category on box set compilations of existing and original content.  These collaborations are often competitively priced and offer readers the opportunity to discover multiple new authors in a single book.  The collaborations also enable multiple authors to amplify each other’s marketing efforts by leveraging each other’s platforms.
14. Production takes on increased importance in 2014 – One of the most important secrets to ebook publishing success is to write more books.  As a writer, your writing is your unique creation.  It’s your product.  Authors who write great books (and produce more of them), are the authors who build sales and platform the fastest, because each new book represents an opportunity to please existing fans and hook new ones.  Organize your time to spend more time writing and less time on everything else.
15. BY MARK COKER AT 3:43 PM