Showing posts with label Mark Coker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mark Coker. Show all posts

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Smashwords 2017 analysis on book sales

Hi
I've just read the Mark Coker annual report on what's happening in the book sales world....

What categories are selling best, what you can do to get those sales happening and what price points work best. 

Surprise, surprise... it's not always the $0.99c price point that drags readers in to become buyers. He has the figures to back up the $4.99, $3.99 and $2.99 price points. 


http://blog.smashwords.com/2017/06/smashwords-survey-2017.html


Monday, January 23, 2017

how to self publish your book and sell it

Hi

I'm not going to rewrite this article because I think it's that good. Take heed. Too many writers think their book is great after the first draft. Most books need loads of editing to make them great. 

Study the best selling writers in your genre. Take note of when they introduce the first conflict, introduce the players, how they introduce them, is there a mix of long and short chapters, how much dialogue there is on each page, and so forth. 

Also, take note of how many people they acknowledge as having helped in their journey to getting published. Some authors have dozens. Being an author is a group effort from yourself writing the book, to the editor/s, copy editors, proofreaders, beta readers, cover designers and the many social media sites where you advertise your book.

http://www.writersworkshop.co.uk/blog/self-publish-book-amazon-kindle-kdp/

Friday, January 15, 2016

Pacing makes or breaks a story.

PACING
This is essential for every story whether it be a full length novel or a short story. It doesn’t matter if you’re writing romance, thriller, horror, fantasy, sci fi, or YA. You must ensure your readers will turn the page to see what happens next. Your TASK is to make the readers want to keep reading no matter what is happing around them.

  • a.     Something must happen in every scene.
  • b.     A question must remain unanswered at the end of ever chapter except the very last one.
  • c.      Ensure your Main Character propels that action. The reader wants to emphasize with the MC and intimately share experiences and the MC’s journey. Don’t give the reader a reason to stop turning the pages.
  • d.     DON’T tell the reader everything that’s going to happen before it happens as that can destroy the suspense and deprive the reader the enjoyment of surprise.
  • e.     Give your MC bigger challenges to overcome as your story progresses. These should be compelling and the MC must overcome these to move on. The MC’s character should be revealed and grow as the MC moves through these challenges.
  • f.       Throw your MC into a pressure cooker so they must do such and such by a certain time otherwise e.g. the world will end, the MC’s mother will make the biggest mistake of her life, the MC’s father will miss his flight, etc.
  • g.     Lee Child, says: “Write the slow parts fast and the fast parts slow.”
  • h.     DON’T load the first chapter with back story and descriptions as this will slow the pacing from the get go. See how much you can cut that isn’t missed. No need to tell the reader that the MC’s parents were church goers, loved a good steak, had to shop on Thursdays or the world would end, did not do the washing on a Sunday, etc. Let the reader find this out as they progress through the story and only if it moves the story forward.
  • i.        Dialogue is great but shouldn’t replace action. If you have no dialogue on any page in your story then it better be compelling otherwise the reader will stop reading.
  • j.       Aim for clarity. Less is more.
  • k.     DON’T use a longer word when a short word will do the task.
  • l.        Ensure that all unanswered questions are answered by the end of the story. If you don’t do this, then the reader will be frustrated that you left them hanging. Nothing spoils a good tale than one with an incomplete ending.
  •  

Sunday, January 10, 2016

My journey to publication and sales of Sleep then my Princess

Hi

My journey with my first thriller, being a complete novice at marketing and kindle: I uploaded The Deadly Caress and it didn't sell a single copy for about five weeks and then sold about  6 copies each time I had used the Amazon facility to reduce the book from $2.99 to 99c. I no longer use the Kindle Countdown Deal as I've found it to restricting as you have to have the book listed at or above $2.99 for 3 months prior to your sale date. And I've opted out of Kindle Select but still have the book listed for borrows but I never get any borrows anymore. Update: Just found out that Kindle changed their policy and don't allow borrows now if you're not in Kindle Select.

www.getBook.at/B00I0DI0MY

With my second thriller Sleep then my Princess, I was prepared. 

www.getbook.at/B016G5T7AG

I took advantage of the pre-order facility on Kindle and uploaded my thriller about 6 weeks before launch. Changed the cover a few times till I was happy with it. I had a guy on Fiverr do a cover but no one that I asked in my FB buddy groups really liked it. So I got another cover made with a different cover designer. Put that cover up for comment on my FB buddy groups and played with the font till it seemed okay and asked my FB groups again. The font I would have gone with was voted second best so I opted with the font which everyone thought was best. I figured, who am I to know what will draw the public eye to buy the book. I got six beta readers to read through the manuscript and they offered their suggestions which I diligently worked through. I had two editors go through the manuscript as I'm not good at picking up all the typos and over used words. 

A month prior to launch I started marketing it via FB groups (free) and my twitter page listed at 99c for pre-launch. I have to say that I'm in so many FB groups now where you can post your promo that I've lost count (maybe about 50-60).  However, FB won't let you post more than 10 promos in a certain time frame any more. They freeze your account for 14 days if you do. They want you to take up their paid promos instead.

I lined up two paid promotions for the launch date (total cost was $80). Pre-sales were at 19 units (due to FB groups) on launch day Oct 30th, Nov 2nd 19 units,  Nov 14th 90 units, Nov 23rd 89 units, and then it started dropping a little with some highs on Nov 30th 56 units, Dec 12th 50 units, Jan 4th 47, and now Jan 9th 23 units. Update: March 2016 it's at around 40 units most days.

I also did a Fiverr promo for $5.50 two weeks ago and a blog listing via Fiverr a week ago again $5.50. I might do a FB promo shortly to raise the momentum in sales. I initially intended to raise the price from 99c a week after launch but since Sleep then my Princess was selling so well, I was too scared to do this. So it's still at 99c for now.

I didn't get into the top #100 sold in the Kindle store but was in the top #12 in my category for about 7 weeks in the USA. I have now slipped to #23 in Books > Mystery, Thriller & Suspense > Thrillers & Suspense > Medical, USA. I even got into the top #35 in my category in the UK store and Au as well at one point.

I have to point out that I have got 3 awful one star reviews which haven't seemed to have stopped my sales, thank goodness. One of the reviewers couldn't even construct a sentence nor spell.

Monday, April 27, 2015

How to become a best selling author


Self-Publishing Success Stories: The Anatomy of a Kindle Bestseller


Writing for writing’s sake is absolutely brilliant, but many of us have ambitions to be #1 on the Amazon charts, selling hundreds of thousands of books and raking in the cash!
successThere’s nothing wrong with ambition, especially when others have walked the path before us. Today, #1 Amazon UK bestselling author Mark Edwardsexamines some of the characteristics of what goes into a Kindle bestseller.
As self-published authors we are all inspired by the sight of other indie writers tearing up the bestseller lists, rolling in royalty checks, getting big bucks movie and book deals, and achieving all the things we fantasise about in those misty moments when we raise our heads from our keyboards and allow ourselves to dream.

Personal experience

I was one of those fortunate writers who has achieved self-publishing success. In 2011, my writing partner Louise Voss and I hit No.1 on Amazon.co.uk and sold just under 100,000 ebooks.
This wasn’t dumb luck, but the result of a strategy, based on years of marketing experience. I have identified seven factors that can propel a book onto the bestseller lists if you can get them all lined up and firing.  But before talking about me, I want to look at another self-published success story.
Amazon UK recently released a list of the ten biggest-selling self-published books of 2012. At No.2 was Only the Innocent, a mystery novel by Rachel Abbott, which had hogged the top spot on Amazon for a month early in the year, selling 100,000 copies at a price that earned Rachel the 70% royalty rate. She has now teamed up with Amazon who are publishing Only the Innocent in the US while Rachel remains independent in the UK.

 How Rachel Abbott hit #1 on Amazon

Rachel is refreshingly open about how she did it – and the first part of that was about getting the basics right: a gripping book with a strong concept; an evocative and professional-looking cover; and an excellent book description that makes you want to read the book.
Next, Rachel did something very simple but vital: she wrote a marketing plan. Then she carried that plan out. This does not sound remarkable but you’d be amazed how few writers – and publishers, it has to be said – bother to do this. But if you are serious about success, you need a plan and you need to stick to it. Or rather, you need to follow your plan, doing more of the things that work, and less of the things that don’t. (That’s the secret of marketing, by the way.)

What were some of the things that worked for Rachel?

Selling ebooks is all about exposure – it isn’t true that good books will naturally rise to the top. You have to get them noticed. So Rachel focused on getting her book seen, and to do this she did two things.
Firstly, she used Twitter to get word of her books out there. She didn’t just set up a Twitter account and start banging out links (because that’s a waste of time). Instead, she used tools and services like Tweet Adder and Triberr to increase her exposure. Triberr is interesting because it’s like a club where Twitter users get together to retweet each other’s posts, thus greatly increasing exposure.
Her approach to getting reviews was professional and clever. She identified the blogs and sites that she thought might review her book, then created a template that she sent to the review sites clearly and politely requesting a review. I am sure that if you run such a site, and are inundated with amateur requests, receiving something that looks professional and sane will stand out. It’s like receiving a great covering letter and resumé from a job candidate.
The effect of the social activity and picking up reviews was to slowly build sales – with the aim of getting noticed by Amazon. This tallies with my own experience. I realized very early on that the best way to sell books was to get onto the ‘also bought’ bars of popular books. Short of getting into the Daily Deals or being chosen by Amazon for a featured list, the ‘also bought’ bars are the most important pieces of real estate on the site. If you can get among the first books on the ‘also bought’ bar of a top ten book, your book will also follow it up the chart. Guaranteed.

It’s like pushing a boulder up a hill.

All the effort goes into the ascent – the slow, tortuous climb to the top, one step at a time. Every sale takes you a little further up that hill, and more likely to get picked up by the magic algorithms. Then, if you have done everything else right – the cover, the description, garnered good reviews – the boulder will grow lighter and easy to push. Then – when you get picked up by the algorithms and gain exposure – you can let go of the boulder and let Amazon do all the work for you!
My strategy was very similar to Rachel’s, except I didn’t use Twitter to reach readers (I used it, as I still do, to network with potential influencers, the bloggers and journalists and other writers who can help you gain exposure).

Using blogging to get noticed

My strategy was to set up a blog – IndieIQ.com – on which I interviewed the most popular self-published authors I could find. My belief was that if I interviewed someone with a large following, those followers would come to my blog to read about their favourite author, and maybe check out my books as a result. I also did everything I could to get onto other blogs and sites.
I made sure that Killing Cupid and Catch Your Death both had strong, eye-catching covers and great descriptions, and emailed everyone I could think of who might give the books a mention. One day, after doing this for months, sales suddenly took off – because the algorithms had kicked in. At that point, I tweaked the description of Killing Cupid and sales doubled immediately.

So what are the lessons that self-published writers can learn from my and Rachel’s experience?

Here are my 7 take-home tips.
  1. Design a cover that tells the reader exactly what kind of book this is and that looks professional.
  2. Write a book description that makes the reader desperate to read it.
  3. Write a marketing plan and carry it out – adapting it as you go along to do more of the stuff that’s worthwhile and none of the stuff that isn’t.
  4. Instead of sending out endless links to your own followers on Twitter, try to get retweets – reach your audience’s audience.
  5. Contact, in a friendly and professional way, every single person and website you can think of who might want to give you exposure – and give them a good reason for doing so.
  6. Associate with successful writers – learn from them and get in front of their fans.
  7. Be prepared to work damn hard!
You can download my free guide to writing a sizzling book description from IndieIQ – and I am currently accepting new clients. I can write a great book description for you or critique your current one.  Contact me for full details.
Listen to an audio interview with Rachel Abbott here on how she used reviews and social media to get to the top of the Amazon charts
What questions do you have for Mark in terms of how he and Rachel hit the top spot on Amazon? Please do leave them in the comments.
mark edwards and louise vossMark Edwards is the co-author, with Louise Voss, of thrillers Killing Cupid and Catch Your Death, which were originally huge hits when self-published in 2011, leading to a deal with HarperCollins.
all fall downTheir third novel, All Fall Down, has just been published. Having worked in marketing for years, Mark also runs IndieIQ.com and offers services to writers including writing book descriptions. He can be found on Twitter @mredwards.
Rachel Abbott is re-releasing Only The Innocent in Feb 2013.
To read more about this duo click on the link below....

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Six tips to bring your book out of the doldrums

More than ever before authors are struggling to make sense of what's happening with ebook publishing and keep up.
When do we get time to write after blogging, facebooking, twittering, etc? We're told you can't get seen and your book purchased if you're not socially marketing yourself.  It's never easy but we must find the time.

I've just read Mark Coker's tips and wanted to share them here.

Six Makeover Tips:  How to Bring a Book Back from the Doldrums 

Makeover Tip #1 – Look at your reviews at Smashwords, Apple, B&N and Amazon.  Ignore the reviews from friends and family, they don’t count.  Average them up.  How many stars are you getting out of five?

Reviews of Never Too Far by
Abbi Glines (Apple iBookstore)
Today, when I look at the top 20 bestsellers at the Apple iBookstore, they’re averaging 4 stars.  On other random days I’ve done this test, they averaged 4.5.  The #1 bestselling book today at Apple is Never Too Far by Abbi Glines (distributed by Smashwords), and it averages 4.5 stars.  Some of the representative comments are, “loved this book,” “Amazing,” “couldn’t put it down,” “couldn’t stop reading,” “such a wonderful story,” “cannot wait for book 3!” and, “this book hasn’t been out 24 hours and yet I read it twice already.”  If you want to be a bestseller, good or good enough is not good enough.  

You need to WOW your reader.  It doesn’t matter if you write romance, mystery or non-fiction, if your book doesn’t move the reader to an emotional extreme, your job isn’t done.  Take the case of my novel, Boob Tube.  It averages around 3.5 stars.  That’s not good enough.  We’re not wowing readers.  My wife and I should probably do a major revision if we want better reviews.  Our sales range from 20 to 40 copies a month.  What if after a revision, we averaged 4.5 stars?  Imagine how that would move the needle on sales.

    What if you don’t have reviews? – This is as big of a problem as poor reviews.  If your book has been out for more than three months and it’s not selling well and you don’t have reviews, I’d set the price to free, at least for a limited time.  What do you have to lose?  Readers aren’t finding you anyway.  That’s the decision we came to with Boob Tube.  For the first two years (2008-2009), Boob Tube sold maybe 20 copies.  It had only one or two reviews.  My wife and I decided to set the price to free for six months.  We got 40,000 downloads, a lot of reviews, and even our first fan mail (yay!).  Then we set the price to $2.99 and it started selling.  Without reviews at the retailers, Goodreads, LibraryThing and elsewhere, few readers will take a chance on you.  FREE helps readers take that chance.

Makeover Tip #2 – Redo your Cover Image.  If your book’s reviews are averaging over four stars, yet the book isn’t selling, your cover is probably the problem.  This was the case last year for Smashwords author R.L. Mathewson.  She was earning fabulous “WOW” reviews from readers, yet she was only selling a few copies a day (even still, a few copies a day is way above average for most authors). Read the interview with R.L. here
When she upgraded her cover images, her books immediately took off and hit the N.Y. Times bestseller list.  Great reviews plus a great cover can make all the difference.  A great cover image makes a promise to the reader.  A poor cover image chases potential readers away.  Does your cover make a promise?

Here’s a quick test, and a challenge:  If you were to strip away the title and author name, does the image tell the reader, “this is the book you’re looking for to experience [the feeling of first love for romance; fear for horror; edge of your seat suspense for thrillers; knowledge for a non-fiction how-to; an inspiring story of personal journey for a memoir, etc].”

Is the cover image professional?  Does it look as good or better than the top-10 sellers in your category or genre?  The human brain is programmed to process imagery faster than written words.  When a reader is browsing book listings, they’re looking to have their attention arrested by something that speaks to them.   Everything else is noise.  Don’t be the noise.

Back to my novel.  A couple bestselling Smashwords authors have told me that the cover of Boob Tube doesn't work.  It took me awhile to come around, but I agree with them now.  The image focuses on breasts, which are an obsessive, almost-debilitating focus for the actresses on daytime television soaps.  We explore this in the book.  Yet to the reader, the image sends conflicting messages.  Is this book erotica, or pornography?  No, of course it’s not, but the reader doesn’t know.  Because the image isn’t resonating with the right promise, we’re probably chasing away readers who would otherwise be drawn to the story.

Makeover Tip #3 – Is your book priced too high?  When a book is priced too high, it makes the book less affordable to the reader. If you're an unknown author, it makes the reader less willing to take a chance on you.  For readers who could afford it, the high price can makes the book less desirable when there are alternative books of equal quality at less cost.  Last year, when we conducted a comprehensive study of the impact of price on unit downloads and gross sales, we found that lower prices moved more unit sales than higher prices (no surprise there).  We found $1.99 and below underperformed in terms of gross sales (unit sales * price).  We found books priced at $2.99 earned slightly more than books priced over $10.00, yet enjoyed six times as many unit sales.

Dollars in your pocket are nice, but over the long term, the greater number of readers is what will drive your fan base and future sales.  If your book is priced over $5.99, and it’s not selling well, experiment with a lower price and see what impact it has.  There’s one other potential advantage of lower prices:  if the reader feels they received a great read for the price, they may be more likely to give you a positive review, and a positive reviews will lead to more readers.

Makeover tip #4 – Look at your sampling to sales conversion ratio.  The Smashwords store has a little-known feature I think is entirely unique in the ebook retailing world:  We tell you how many partial samples were downloaded.  If you click to your Dashboard, you’ll see a column for book sales and a column for downloads.  The download count is a crude metric, but if you understand how it works, you’ll be able to use it as a relatively good tool.  This data is only for sales and downloads in the Smashwords store.

The download data includes both sample downloads and full book downloads for purchased books.  If a customer or sampler downloads in multiple formats (such as epub and mobi), or downloads multiple times, each time will tick the download count higher.  To make the data cleaner, subtract your paid sales from the download count.  Divide your sales at Smashwords.com by the number of downloads.  This will tell you, roughly, what percentage of downloaders actually purchase your book.

When I do the numbers on my priced book, The 10-Minute PR Checklist, I find that approximately 13% of sample downloads lead to sale.  That’s pretty good.  When we last ran the average numbers a couple years ago, we found that site-wide, about 1 in 50 sample downloads led to sale, but when we looked only at books that had actually sold, the number was closer to 1 in 25 (about 4%).  I’ve seen multiple recent bestsellers at Smashwords where the conversion ratio is 50%.  That’s amazing!  Use these numbers as rough guides.  If you have multiple books at Smashwords, you can see how the numbers compare across your list.  Compare with your friends.  If you’ve had 150 sample downloads and zero sales, such as in my Tip 6 example below, it’s fair to say readers are sending you a message.

Makeover Tip #5 – Are you targeting the right audience?  As a writer, you’re never going to satisfy every reader.  That’s okay.  Don’t try.  Readers who love horror novels may not love romance.  Know your target audience, and then make sure your title, book cover, book description, categorization and marketing are all aligned to target that audience with fine-tuned precision.  If you send the wrong messages, you’ll fail to attract the right readers.  Instead, you’ll attract the wrong reader, and the wrong reader will give you poor reviews.  Again, I’ll use my own novel as an example (since I’m not afraid to illustrate my mistakes!).  Early in our novel, a dead body is discovered, so there’s a bit of a mystery about who did it.  It’s a minor plot point, and the book isn’t categorized as mystery.  However, at one time in 2011, our book description played up the mystery surrounding the murder.  For at least one reader, after she read the description she downloaded the book thinking it was a murder mystery.  It’s not.  It’s a book about the dark side of Hollywood celebrity.  

As a result, we disappointed her, and received this one-star review:
“If you want to read about drug use, masochism, naive behavior leading to wrecked lives and truly disgusting eating disorders, this book is for you. If you were looking for a murder mystery, look somewhere else. I got more than 50% into the book and no one was calling the death a murder. So, no investigation, no questions, none of the things that make a book a murder mystery.” 
Following this review, I removed the murder-mystery subplot from the description and focused on the top themes.  So take a fresh look at your description, cover, categorization and marketing and make sure you’re targeting the right reader.  Avoid the temptation to target a broader-than-necessary market.

Makeover Tip #6 – Pride goes before the fall.  It’s tough being a writer.  You pour your heart and soul into your words, and then lay your words bare before the world to judge.  It takes bravery and confidence to publish.   Speaking from personal experience, it’s heartbreaking to receive your first one-star review.  We all get them.  

Over at Amazon, where I have the most reviews, I received this about Boob Tube:
“A total waste of my time. As another reviewer said, the best part was when I decided to stop reading it! If I could give it a minus star, I would.” 
OUCH!  Nothing’s worse than when the reader hates the book so much they don’t even finish it, and then they leave a review like that just to drive the knife deeper.  What if the book got better later?  What if everything started making sense on the next page?  Readers are a fickle bunch.  

To press forward as a writer, we have to decide what we can learn from, and what we can ignore.  Find your strength from your five-star reviews (we have those too!), and carefully find your inspiration about where you might improve from the negative reviews.  I try to learn something from every review, even if I don’t agree with it.  Some writers, after receiving such scathing criticism, might feel inclined to curl up in a fetal position, unpublish their books, and give up.  Never give up!

The opposite response to reader feedback, however, can be equally destructive, and that’s to let pride leave you deaf and dumb to the bread crumb clues your readers are giving you.  If you want to be a successful writer, you have to be willing to listen to the judgment of readers.  Your readers, through their word of mouth, will determine how many other readers you reach.

I think the chat transcript below serves as a good case study in pride (in fact, it was the spark that led me to write this blog post).  The author contacted me on my personal Facebook page.  As much as I try to separate my personal life from my private life - and I discourage Smashwords inquiries over my personal page - at Facebook it’s difficult to divorce the two without coming across as a rude ogre.  If someone messages me, I try to respond.  I omitted his name, country and other details to protect his identity.  I made minor edits for typo fixes or clarity.  Warning: There's not a happy ending.

http://blog.smashwords.com/2013/03/six-tips-to-read-reader-tea-leaves-how.html


Monday, January 06, 2014

Mark Coker - Smashwords predictions for 2014

Hi

I've just been reading the predictions by Mark Coker from Smashwords. I've copied and pasted it here.
Take heed. He does mention that he didn't get all of his 2013 predictions right but he's still more knowledgeable than the us little authors out there.

Many months ago I decided that to compete with the professional authors I had to get my book edited and proof read as when I tried to read some of the indie books on kindle, I found most were too bogged down with overwriting, etc and stopped. There were some indie books that were terrific reads but these were in the minority.

I listed my project for substantive editing and proofreading on Elance and got more than 85 quotes for my job. I chose an American editor as my story is set part in California and Sydney and I was aiming for the American market. Also, I thought that since I lived in Sydney, I could handle the dialogue from characters who were from Australia.

And I found that I could get a professional looking book cover done on fiverr.com instead of trying to created something myself that would take me hours if not days and would brand my story as raw (still needing polishing and not worth reading).

MONDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2013

2014 Book Publishing Industry Predictions - Price Drops to Impact Competitive Dynamics


It’s that time of year again when I polish my crystal ball and stick my neck out with predictions for the year ahead.

Last year I went out on a limb with 21 predictions.  Looking back on them now, several were spot on, several were premature but will still play out, and some were dead wrong.  That’s the fun of the prediction game.  Even incorrect predictions, analyzed in retrospect, help shape our understanding of the present and future.

Predictions stir our imagination of what’s possible.  By imagining what’s possible, indie authors can prepare for the future, or take steps to realize the future they desire.

This year, I bring fourteen predictions for 2014.
  1. Big publishers lower prices – Traditional publishers have always fought tooth and nail to hold the line on ebook prices.  By maintaining high prices, they left the sub-$5.99 market for ebooks wide open for indie authors to exploit.  For several years, indies have enjoyed this playground all to themselves.  The results of our 2013 Smashwords survey illustrated the competitive advantage indies received by pricing low.  Our 2013 survey found that books priced $2.99 and $3.99, on average, received about four times as many unit sales as books priced over $7.99.  This pricing advantage helped many indies out-sell and out-compete the traditional publishers.  It helped indies build fan bases at a rapid clip.  For indies who could write and publish low-priced books that were as good or better than what New York was publishing, placement in the bestseller lists became more achievable than ever before.  For much of 2013, it wasn’t uncommon to see indies holding up to half of the top 10 bestseller slots at major retailers on some days.  Big publishers have taken note.  In 2013 big publishers began competing more aggressively on price with temporary price promotions.  Until recently, it was rare to see a traditionally published book priced under $4.00.  In 2014 their temporary price promotions will give way to a new normal.  Discounting is a slippery slope.  Once customers are conditioned to expect big-name authors for $3.99 or less, the entire industry will be forced to go there.  The huge pricing advantage once enjoyed by indies will diminish in 2014.
  2. When everyone is pricing sub $4.00, price promotions will become less effective – If readers have an unlimited supply of high-quality books from their favorite authors at under $4.00, it means factors other than price will gain importance.
  3. Ebook growth slows – Here comes the hangover.  After a decade of exponential growth in ebooks with indies partying like it was 1999, growth is slowing.  We all knew this day was coming.  Year over year growth of 100% to 300% a year could not continue forever.  The hazard of fast-growing market is that it can mask flaws in business models.  It can cause players to misinterpret their success, and the assumptions upon which they credit their success.  It can cause successful players to draw false correlations between cause and effect.  Who are these players?  I’m talking about authors, publishers, retailers, distributors and service providers – all of us.  It’s easy to succeed when everything’s growing.  It’s when things slow-down that your mettle is tested.  The market is slowing.  A normal cyclical shakeout is coming.  Rather than fear the shakeout, embrace it.  Let it spur you on to become a better, more competitive player in 2014.  Players who survive shakeouts usually come out stronger the other end.
  4. Competition increases dramatically – With hundreds of thousands of new books published annually, and with retailer catalogs swelling to carry millions of titles, it may come across as trite for me to predict that completion will increase in 2014 for indies.  Yet in 2014, the competition faced by indies will increase by an order of magnitude, and will make some indies wish it was 2013 again.  The ebook publishing playing field, which until recently was significantly tilted in the indies’ favor, has now leveled a bit.  Yet indies still enjoy a number of competitive advantages, including faster time to market, greater creative freedom, closer relationships with readers and thus a better understanding of reader desires, higher royalties rates and ultra-low pricing flexibility including FREE.
  5. Ebook sales, measured in dollar volume, will decrease in 2014 – Yikes.  I said it.  The nascent ebook market is likely to experience its first annual downturn in sales as measured in dollar volume.  This will be driven by price declines among major publishers and by the slowing transition from print to screens.  Although readers will continue migrating from print to screens, the early adopters have adopted and the laggards will shift more slowly.  Another driver of the drop is that the overall book market growth has been moribund for several years.  As ebooks as a percentage of the overall book market increase, it means the growth of ebooks will become constrained by the growth and/or contraction of the overall book industry.  Global sales in developing countries remain one potential bright spot that could mitigate any sales contraction.
  6. Ebook unit market share will increase – Ebook consumption, measured in unit sales and downloads, and measured in words read digitally, will increase in 2014.  The industry-wide sales slowdown, caused by the drop in average prices, will mask the fact that more books will be read than ever before.  This is great news for book culture, and good news for indies who despite the loss of their once-powerful price advantage, will still be positioned to profit more from low prices, or to compete at ultra-low (sub $3.00) price points than traditionally published authors.
  7. A larger wave of big-name authors will defect to indieville – Multiple market forces will conspire to cause a large number of traditionally published authors to turn their backs on big publishers.  Publishers will try to hold the line on their 25% net ebook royalty structures, which means big authors will see their royalties suffer as prices drop and as the unit sales advantage of low prices decreases, and as the disadvantage of high prices increases.  At the same time, readers will continue to transition from print to ebooks, making the print distribution to physical bookstores less important, and thus weakening the grip big publishers once had on bigger-name authors.  Big authors, eager to maximize their net, will feel greater impetus to emigrate to indieville.
  8. It’s all about the writing – It’s back to basics time.  In a world where readers face an unlimited quantity of high-quality low-cost works, the writers who achieve the most success will be those who take their readers to the most emotionally satisfying extremes.  Books are pleasure-delivery devices.  It doesn’t matter if you’re publishing a cookbook, romance novel, gardening how-to, memoir or political treatise.  Your job as the indie author is to write that super-fabulous book.  That involves great writing and professional-quality editing.  It also means avoiding all the mistakes that create unnecessary friction that prevent readers from discovering, desiring and enjoying the book.  To understand these points of friction, and how to avoid them, check out my discussion of Viral Catalysts in The Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success, or in my Youtube video on best practices.
  9. All authors become indie authors - Back in the dark ages of publishing, you were either traditionally published or weren't published.  Writers who couldn't get a publishing deal were seen as failures, because without the access to the publisher's printing press, distribution and professional know-how, it was virtually impossible to reach readers.  Today, failure is not an option.  The next generation of writers can begin writing their book with the full confidence that one way or another, it will get published.  Traditionally published authors now realize they have desirable publishing alternatives they never had before.  Once a writer - any writer - comes to the realization that the power in the publishing industry has transfered from publishers to writers, it opens up a new world of possibilities.  Publishing no longer becomes an either/or question.  The best writers will have the option to publish independently AND traditionally, or do one or the other.  It's their choice.  Both options are worthy of consideration by all writers, and can be mutually complementary.  Even if you're a traditionally published author today, you're an indie author because you decide what happens with your next project.
  10. Subscription ebook services will change the game – If the ebook subscription services – the most notable of which are Scribd and Oyster – can make their business models work, then they’ll drive a game changing shift in how readers value and consume books.  I examined the potential implications of this in my two-part blog post on this model (read part one | read part two) .  For ebook subscription service users, reading will become an abundant resource that feels free.  It’ll become a utility service in the same way that water and electricity are utilities.  When we flip the switch to turn on a light, or when we turn the knob on the faucet to brush our teeth, we’re not thinking about how our next 60 seconds of that service will cost us one or two cents.  We pay our monthly service fee, and for the most part we use the utility as much as we want.  With ebook subscription services, the reader will pay $9 or $10 a month and enjoy virtually limitless reading.  Readers will be relieved of the cognitive load of having to decide if a given book is worth the purchase price.  Instead, they’ll surf and sample books with minimal friction, as if every book is free.  The reader’s attention, and the book’s ability to hold the reader’s attention, will become the new factor in determining a writer’s success.  Even if these subscription services fail, they'll change the future of publishing by giving readers a taste of friction-free reading-as-a-service.  It's a taste readers are unlikely to forget.
  11. Traditional publishers will reevaluate their approach to self-publishing – The vanity approach to self-publishing, as witnessed by Pearson/Penguin’s acquisition of Author Solutions (operates AuthorHouse, iUniverse, BookTango, Trafford, Xlibris, Palibrio, others…), has shown itself to be a boondoggle that harmed the brands of all traditional publishers.  I predicted this last year.  The Author Solutions business model is wholly dependent upon making money by selling overpriced services to unwitting authors.  Their business model is expensive at best, and unethical at worst.  It’s about selling $15,000 publishing packages to authors who will never earn the money back.  The model represents the antithesis of what the best and proudest publishers have always represented.  Great publishers invest in their authors.  The money flows from reader to retailer to publisher to author, not from author to publisher.  At the same time Author Solutions has tarnished the reputation of all traditional publishers - even those not engaged in such practices - the indie author revolution has continued in full swing.  Indies are stealing market share.  Indies have learned to publish like professionals.  Many indies no longer shop their books to agents and publishers, and instead choose to publish their books directly to readers using self-serve publishing and distribution platforms such as Smashwords, or KDP, Nook Press, and others.  Publishers are losing access to the critical deal flow that is their lifeblood.  I talked about this in my discussion of black swans in last year’s predictions.  If they lack an effective service offering for indie authors, the big publishers risk finding themselves on the wrong side of history as authors move on without them.  The stigma once associated with self-publishing is melting away as the stigma of traditional publishing grows.  How can publishers stem the bloodletting and recapture relationships with authors?  The answer will come by publishers reevaluating their attitude toward authors.  They must recognize that publishing is a service, and that they serve at the pleasure of authors.  Now that authors have choices, the publishing game can no longer be about, “What can the author do for the publisher?”  Authors no longer need to bow subservient to publishers, so business models based on this old practice and attitude will be rejected.  The new publisher mantra must be, “What can the publisher do for the author that the author cannot or will not do on their own?” 
    Publishers need to broaden their author services menu by creating an inclusive business model that allows them to take a risk on every author, to be able to say “Yes” to every author when the prior attitude was to say “No.”  Authors want a spectrum of options, from self-serve to full-serve, and they shouldn't have to shell out cash to their publisher for any option.   Publishers must abandon the culture of “No,” because authors no longer have the patience or tolerance to hear “No.”  Authors have choices, and they’ve gained a taste for the joys of self-publishing.  What’s this new model, where the publisher can say yes to every author, yet still earn a profit?  The answer: they need to build or acquire their own self-serve publishing platform. A self-serve platform would allow them to take a risk on every author, and to form a relationship with every author.  By operating a free publishing platform, the publishers would have the ability to serve the diverse needs of all authors.  DIY authors would select the self-serve option.  Authors with proven commercial potential who don't want to hassle with the responsibilities of being one's own publisher might opt for a path somewhere along the spectrum between DIY and full-serve (what has been heretofore been known as traditional publishing), assuming both the author and publisher desire that.  The compensation models and level of publisher investment could vary based on the level of publisher service.  Such a full-spectrum approach to publishing, where authors pay nothing, is 100% aligned with the author’s interests, and 100% aligned with the best practices of the best publishers.  A good self-serve platform doesn't employ sales people.  It doesn't take money from authors.  And that’s how it should be.  So the question is, can publishers introduce their own free self-serve platforms to broaden their services offerings?  Time is running out.
  12. Platform is king – Platform is your ability to reach readers.  Authors who can build, maintain and leverage their platforms will have a significant competitive advantage over those who cannot.  Think of your platform as a multi-layered infrastructure that allows you to reach both new and existing fans.  Elements of this infrastructure include your followings on Twitter, Facebook and the RSS feed of your blog.  It includes the breadth of your distribution (more retailers is better than fewer), your uninterrupted presence at each retailer for every book, and the reviews at those retailers.  It includes the number of authors who have “favorited” you at Smashwords, or who have added your books to their booklists at Goodreads.  It includes subscribers to your private mailing list.  It includes your celebrity, and your ability to leverage social media or traditional media or the love of your fans to get your message out.  There are two primary factors that drive sales of any product or brand.  The first is awareness.  If the consumer is not aware of your product or brand, then they cannot purchase it.  You need to put your product in front of a consumer and gain their attention before they can consider it.  The second is desire.  Once a consumer is aware of your product or brand, they must desire it.  As I talk about in my Secrets book, the author is the brand.  Your job as the author is to build awareness of your brand, and to build, earn and deserve positive desire for your brand.  Awareness plus desire create demand for your product.  This is why platform will become more important than ever in 2014.  Your platform helps you get the message out to existing fans who already know and desire your brand, and helps you reach new fans who will attach their wagons to your horse.  The larger your platform is, the easier it is to grow your platform further, because platforms grow organically.
  13. Multi-author collaborations will become more common – In 2013, I observed a marked increase in the number of multi-author collaborations.  I’ve been encouraging multi-author collaborations for a few years in the Smashwords Book Marketing Guide, but 2013 was the year the practice really took hold.  Authors are collaborating with fellow authors in their same genre or category on box set compilations of existing and original content.  These collaborations are often competitively priced and offer readers the opportunity to discover multiple new authors in a single book.  The collaborations also enable multiple authors to amplify each other’s marketing efforts by leveraging each other’s platforms.
  14. Production takes on increased importance in 2014 – One of the most important secrets to ebook publishing success is to write more books.  As a writer, your writing is your unique creation.  It’s your product.  Authors who write great books (and produce more of them), are the authors who build sales and platform the fastest, because each new book represents an opportunity to please existing fans and hook new ones.  Organize your time to spend more time writing and less time on everything else.